Saturday 3 December 2016

Rosberg retires! A bad decision? --- The Replacement Question

The news dropped like a bomb yesterday. The reigning World Drivers Champion Nico Rosberg will leave Formula 1 and with that one of the most coveted cockpits the sport has to give. Therefore, he won't defend his title next season, which was highly criticized by a lot of F1 fans and experts. But did he really make a bad decision to retire?
If you ask me: No. He did the right thing. To be insulted as a "coward" and even worse by many, because he wants to have more time with his family, don't even seem to know how hard the business of Formula 1 really is. Travelling all around the world is of course a dream of many, and even gain money by that by driving a car for a weekend around a track may be a dream as well for some, but they seem to forget, that all of those drivers only have a few weeks during the whole season, they can come home and spend time with their families. Rosberg just became a father last year, and I hold the view he noticed, that he couldn't be there for his daughter just as much as he wanted to be. 
Furthermore, F1 might not be as physically demanding as it was ten or twenty or thirty years ago, but the fact is that Rosberg definitely had to deal with a lot of psychological attacks, which found their peaks in Abu Dhabi, as we all could see last weekend. Hamilton tried to back him into his opponents, so he would lose position or even cause a crash with them, so he could take away his fourth World Drivers Trophy. Having some immensely fast drivers like Verstappen (who might still need a bit more experience and didn't use the cleanest moves in the past) and Sebastian Vettel, who had a blast through the field on fresher tires, can really have an impact on your psyche, which most of the people (and maybe even drivers in Formula 1) just couldn't stand. In addition to that, his direct opponent Hamilton used a lot of allusions in press conferences (where he sat right next to him) and interviews  to make him feel unworthy and "not good enough". And not only in the finale he had to deal with that pressure. He already had lost 2 championships to his teammate, which almost could come close to a humiliation if he would have lost 3 times in a row. Therefore, he had to deal with that pressure to finally turn the tide throughout the whole season. And don't let us forget: It was the longest season Formula 1 ever had, so there was much to lose throughout the season. It must have been the greatest relief of his life, when he finally crossed that finish line in Abu Dhabi. And as far as I can see, he just doesn't want to have that pressure ever again in his life, which maybe could be even bigger next year, if he had to defend his title against a highly motivated Hamilton and maybe other drivers, who could get cars which are closer to the top in 2017 than that season (Ricciardo? Verstappen? Vettel? Somebody completely else?) I can definitely understand, why he doesn't want to have that again next season and also, why should he? He accomplished everything you can in Formula 1 and achieved his big childhood dream. 
And don't let us forget: He's not the first driver to not take a ride in the following season as a reigning champion. Nigel Mansell, who just like him drove an overpowered car back in 1992, decided against a contract in Formula 1 and took the opportunity to start in Indy car in 1993. Okay okay, he wanted to have another challenge (and even accomplished that by winning it in the same year he joined!) and didn't leave because of his family, BUT he definitely didn't get as much headwind as Rosberg got for his decision to not defend the title.
To conclude that topic, I just can say that a more than worthy champion leaves Formula 1 on a high, the highest you can get, and hope that we still will see him from time to time around the track as a visitor.
But now, we should pose the really important question: Who is going to replace him at Mercedes? If you ask me, I would put my money on Pascal Wehrlein, and that for a good reason. He is the teams protegee, got by the help of them into F1 and already won the DTM (German Touring Cars championship) and proved himself by that to be a great champion. Fun fact to that: the people also told him that he shouldn't leave the DTM because he should defend his title, just like Rosberg is getting told right now. Interesting huh? But I'm getting sidetracked again. Pascal Wehrlein also already approved his talent by scoring a point in one of the slowest cars on the grid in F1. Some might argue, that he's still too young to join such a big team as Mercedes is. What I can tell those people, is to look at Max Verstappen. In comparison to Wehrlein, he started in a midfield team and therefore had much better opportunities to score good results and show more of his talent than Wehrlein. Moreover, he also joined a big team after only one season in Formula 1 (and four races), which was capable of scoring wins in 2016. And he did that in his first race in the Red Bull. In my opinion, Pascal could easily achieve the same if he would get the chance, and I hold the view that he will be announced soon. But still, we should take a look at other opportunities Mercedes could take.
Many people threw the name Fernando Alonso into the hat, and I can see their point. He is a 2 times world champion, and is seen by many to be the best driver on the grid. He had a lot of frustration in the last seasons, where he lost two times a title with Ferrari and finally had to switch to a completely underperforming McLaren team ("GP2 engine! Argh!" :D). Thus, he must be craving to finally be in a good car again, which could win him a title and Mercedes could deliver him that. but there's one reason why he won't go to them. And that is Hamilton. When they were team mates in 2007, they got themselves into such an intense internal team war, that both of them lost the title. So, I'm sure that he won't want to relive something like that again.
As a Vettel fan, obviously (you see what I did there?) I have to throw his name into the ring. And also he would have good reasons to leave Ferrari. They kind of stagnated after 2015 and even fell behind Red Bull in 2016, which is just not good enough for him as a 4 times drivers champion. We heard a lot of his frustration over the team radio in 2016, which found it's peak in Mexico. But I hold the view, that he is still too obsessed wtih taking Ferrari back to the top, just like his idol Michael Schumacher did. Still, I see a higher chance that he will get that Mercedes seat next year than Alonso has.
And of course, we still need to take both Red Bull drivers into account. But I honestly hold the view that neither of them has too much interest to join Mercedes, because the Red Bull car could be even better than the Mercedes next season, with all the aero changes coming up.
And maybe, we also should consider some complete outsiders like Bottas. Why shouldn't they take him? But yeah, I also can't find a good reason why Mercedes should do that so.... let's forget about that quickly again. (Or shouldn't we?)
With all those speculations, I only can say that I'm very keen on learning who will take the Mercedes seat next season and hope that we are going to find out soon. Thanks again for reading and if you have any own speculations or opinions on who could replace Nico, just post them into the comments! I would be happy to learn about some other perspectives on that topic!

Georg

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